As the redistricting arms race continues to rage across the country, the next high-stakes battleground could be Wisconsin.
Over the summer, the Wisconsin Supreme Court declined to hear a case challenging the existing congressional map as a partisan gerrymander favoring Republicans. But the court also recently appointed three-judge panels to hear two ongoing lawsuits that make similar claims, signaling that redistricting may be on the table next year.
The question is whether new congressional maps could come into play in time for the 2026 midterm elections.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court adopted the state’s current congressional map in 2022, when conservative justices still dominated.
But since 2023, four of the seven justices have leaned liberal. Republicans have sought to change that — and used redistricting as a justification.
In April, Susan M. Crawford won election to the Wisconsin Supreme Court in a vote that became the most expensive judicial race in U.S. history after billionaire Elon Musk spent millions backing her conservative opponent.
During the campaign, Musk argued that the most consequential issue in the race was how Wisconsin’s congressional districts would be drawn.
Musk’s concerns were not necessarily warranted. In June, the liberal-leaning Supreme Court declined to take a case* brought by voters asking them to order a new map for 2026. The justices provided no explanation for their decision.
Voters argued that, despite the state being nearly evenly split between the two parties, Wisconsin’s eight-member congressional delegation – made up of six Republicans and two Democrats – gave Democrats the “lowest mathematically possible” representation.
That battle doesn’t appear to be over. In July, two additional redistricting lawsuits were filed.
Voters submitted one* in state court, arguing the congressional map was a partisan gerrymander. And in the other case, Wisconsin Business Leaders for Democracy challenged the map as an anti-competitive gerrymander. Both lawsuits argue the current map violates the state constitution’s guarantee of equal protection and the promise to “maintain a free government.”
Scheduling conferences were held Friday in both cases. But there are already signs the rulings — whatever they may be — could come too late.
In the case alleging a partisan gerrymander, an attorney for the plaintiffs pushed for the court to issue a ruling by March 1, the state election commission’s approximate deadline for a new map. The judge’s response? “We’ll decide them when we can decide them,” the Associated Press reported.
That’s a bad sign in a state with a lot of potential for Democrats.
In 2024, President Donald Trump won Wisconsin by less than one percentage point, with nearly half the voters in the state supporting former Vice President Kamala Harris. If the Wisconsin congressional map accurately reflected that divide, Democrats could pick up two additional seats in Congress.
Six months into Trump’s national redistricting push, Republicans may have gained up to nine new seats in the 2026 midterm elections – five in Texas, one in Missouri, one in North Carolina and two in Utah. Democrats, meanwhile, could be up six seats – five from California redistricting and one in Utah. Virginia Democrats and Florida Republicans will be working on their own redistricting efforts in the coming weeks.
As Trump seeks to tilt the midterms in the GOP’s favor and blue states attempt to counteract him, every potential seat will count. That means the stakes will also be high in Wisconsin.
*The petitioners are represented by the Elias Law Group (ELG). ELG Firm Chair Marc Elias is the founder of Democracy Docket.