Buttigieg, Newsom, and the Brutal Battle for the 2028 Democratic Crown: New Hampshire’s Early Verdict

Who’s Leading the 2028 Democratic Field? (Spoiler: It’s Not Newsom)

New Hampshire Speaks: The Blue Bloodbath Begins

Remember when everyone crowned Gavin Newsom king of the 2028 Democratic primary before the guy even admitted he’d run? Well, the early polling gods in New Hampshire have spoken, and it’s not looking like a Champagne night for Team Newsom. According to a fresh survey from the University of New Hampshire, Newsom’s stuck in second place, playing catch-up to none other than, yes, Pete Buttigieg. Pete’s the guy with more charisma than Biden but less baggage than your average senator—so let’s break down what this all means.

Buttigieg on Top (Don’t Blush, Pete):

Pete Buttigieg (please, try spelling that with one hand) is leading with 19% support. Newsom isn’t far behind, but his 15% feels a bit anemic given all the Twitter bros and blue state donors fawning over his “West Coast savior” persona. Rounding out the trio of early favorites is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with a surprising 14%. If you’re betting the mortgage, maybe swap it for crypto instead—at least Bitcoin doesn’t have midterms. [UNH Poll Data]

It’s Early… But New Hampshire Still Matters (Unfairly)

Here’s the deal. The New Hampshire primary picks up maybe five-and-a-half delegates on a good day, but the national media watches it like obsessed stalkers. Screw up here, and your campaign starts bleeding money, staff, and dignity (see: Howard Dean 2004—CNN).

If you aren’t making headlines in the Granite State, you may as well book a one-way flight to irrelevance.

Fan Favorites, Underdogs, and Political Zombies

• Pete Buttigieg: 19%. Turns out, voters want policy nerd optimism more than old guard grandstanding.
• Gavin Newsom: 15%. He’s loud, he’s everywhere, but not quite winning.
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 14%. She’s young, she’s progressive, she’s probably triggering centrist think-tankers from Boston to Boise.
• Kamala Harris: 11%. Fourth place is like being the fourth Beatles drummer—no one’s writing songs about you.
• Bernie Sanders: 8%. Grandpa’s still got it, but maybe he should be teaching a college seminar instead.
• J.B. Pritzker: 6%. Nice guy, but he’s to charisma what wet cardboard is to fire kindling.

Favorability: When Likability Smacks Ambition

So, who do voters actually like? According to the numbers:

• Pete Buttigieg: 81% (!) favorable, only 6% can’t stand him. Mayor Pete—winning hearts, not just headline wars. [Politico]
• Gavin Newsom: 72% thumbs up, 13% thumbs down. Two out of three ain’t bad—unless you want to win a primary.
• Kamala Harris: Ouch. More people dislike her than love her (17% negative vs 55% positive). She told the BBC she might run, but unless something changes, yikes.[BBC]

Republican Corner: JD Vance and the “Are You Serious?” Show

Take comfort, progressives: the GOP is already melting down. New Hampshire’s poll has Vice President JD Vance with a Stalin-level 51% against Nikki Haley’s 9%. If that’s the future of the Republican Party, we’re one red hat short of a total collapse in critical thinking.
Let’s not even pretend the MAGA crowd cares about competence or democracy at this point—Vance is a Trump clone with fewer felony counts (for now). [The Independent]

If You’re Not First, You’re… Probably Out in 2028

New Hampshire matters, like it or not. The media badge of “front-runner” is magic in American politics, even when the rest of the calendar has more sway. Ask President Dean or Senator Jeb Bush about momentum—oh wait, you can’t. They never happened.

The Takeaway: 2028 Is Already a Shark Tank

Let’s be real: Newsom isn’t dead in the water, but this isn’t the coronation he’d hoped for. Buttigieg’s got a head start, AOC is making all the right enemies, and Harris is stuck in political purgatory. The Democratic base may be ready for something (or someone) newer and weirder, given the apocalyptic state of…well, everything.

Bottom line: If you thought 2024 was wild, buckle straight up—2028’s giving us anxiety before the first ballot even drops. Want to win the Democratic nom? Don’t waver, don’t trust early polls, and definitely don’t get comfortable in New Hampshire. America, you unpredictable, beautiful disaster—don’t ever change.

Fact checked. Sources linked. No MAGA nonsense allowed.