Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2139

   Mesoscale Discussion 2139
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0329 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

   Areas affected...parts of central New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072029Z - 072300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The evolution of one or two supercells posing a risk for
   large hail and locally damaging wind gusts appears possible near and
   southwest through south of Albuquerque by 4-6 PM MDT.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is ongoing across the
   higher elevations of western into central New Mexico.  This is
   likely occurring as lingering inhibition is overcome by orographic
   forcing for ascent, weak low-level warm advection, and continued
   boundary-layer warming.

   South-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow is a relatively modest
   20-25 kt, but vertical shear has become strong, particularly across
   the Albuquerque vicinity of central New Mexico, where easterly
   near-surface flow is trending southeasterly.  This generally
   coincides with strongest ongoing boundary-layer destabilization near
   and southwest through south of Albuquerque, which appears to include
   mixed-layer CAPE locally up to 1000 J/kg.  

   Through 22-00Z, it appears that the environment will become
   increasingly conducive to scattered intensifying thunderstorm
   development, possibly including the evolution of 1 or 2 sustained
   supercell structures.  The stronger cells may tend to take on an
   increasing eastward propagation, accompanied by the risk for large
   hail and locally strong surface gusts into early evening.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 10/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35450707 35440653 35230626 34730608 34160605 33960654
               34210718 34770753 35450707 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN