Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2137

   Mesoscale Discussion 2137
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

   Areas affected...southwest to northeast Kansas and far southeast
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 052050Z - 052315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms should develop
   this afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated severe hail or wind
   reports may occur, a watch is not likely.

   DISCUSSION...A surface front continues to slowly move south across
   the area, with an increase in low clouds denoted behind/north of the
   front. Along and to the south of the front, the airmass has become
   weakly to moderately unstable with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg across
   much of the highlighted area. Mid-level lapse rates remain poor
   across the region, so the bulk of the current instability is driven
   by diurnal heating of a somewhat moist airmass (dewpoint
   temperatures between 55F and 60F) and steepening low-level lapse
   rates. This is evident by an increase in cumulus clouds along and
   south of the front. 

   The expectation is that a combination of weak warm-air advection
   between 850-700 millibars, convergence along the front, a little bit
   more surface heating, and (later) an increasing low-level jet will
   result in convective initiation in the next 1-3 hours along the
   length of the front in Kansas. Effective-layer shear profiles in
   excess of 40 knots will be supportive of thunderstorm organization,
   with perhaps even transient supercellular characteristics occurring.
   However, poor mid-level lapse rates will limit the potential for
   parcel acceleration upward and temper the overall severe threat.
   That said, severe hail or wind reports will be possible with the
   strongest storms, especially those before sunset. 

   With time this evening, thunderstorm coverage should increase in
   response to an increasing low-level jet. These storms will most
   likely be rooted in the 850-700 millibar layer and may initially
   pose a threat for hail or wind before either moving across the
   surface boundary to the cool side or the CAPE reservoir is depleted
   on the warm side. 

   Given the overall limited space and time nature of the severe
   threat, a watch is not likely.

   ..Marsh/Gleason.. 10/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   37240006 37180104 37720155 38750032 40389764 40739660
               40569606 40199593 38069883 37240006 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN