Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2124

   Mesoscale Discussion 2124
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of North Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 232040Z - 232245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and severe gusts will be possible in parts of
   North Texas. A watch is not currently anticipated, but convective
   trends will be monitored for the possibility of a watch.

   DISCUSSION...South of the upper-level trough, forcing for ascent is
   weak. Even so, strong heating (temperatures near 100 F) have
   promoted deepening cumulus within a prefrontal confluence band as
   well as near a weak cold front/surface trough farther west. Given
   observational trends, it appears probable that a few storms are
   possible this afternoon. Coverage over the next two hours is not
   certain. It may take the front moving southward to provide enough
   lift for additional storms. A very moist airmass (upper 60s to low
   70s dewpoints), moderately steep mid-level lapse rates sampled by
   the 12Z FWD sounding and recent TAMDAR soundings, and around 30 kts
   of effective shear suggests large hail would be possible. Severe
   gusts could also occur given steep low-level lapse rates. Limited
   coverage of storms may ultimately preclude a watch, but convective
   trends near the DFW metro will be monitored into the evening.

   ..Wendt/Smith.. 09/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32009807 31909870 32059938 32299956 33419864 33549816
               33509786 33279725 33059676 32849682 32499715 32009807 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN