Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2113

   Mesoscale Discussion 2113
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0547 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

   Areas affected...Southern Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616...

   Valid 212247Z - 220045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong-severe thunderstorm clusters will continue
   propagating southeast across ww616. Wind and hail remain the primary
   threats.

   DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined midlevel
   vort over northeast OK digging southeast toward northwest AR.
   Southwestern influence of the associated trough appears to be aiding
   multiple thunderstorm clusters across portions of north Texas into
   extreme south central Oklahoma. Strong boundary-layer heating has
   proven instrumental in destabilization near the frontal zone and
   0-3km lapse rates are quite steep across north Texas. Latest MRMS
   data suggests at least three robust updrafts are likely generating
   large hail, one over eastern Young County, northern Denton County,
   and southeast Grayson County. Northwesterly flow is gradually
   strengthen over the next several hours, so this activity should
   continue propagating southeast toward the I-20 corridor, including
   the Metroplex. Hail and wind can be expected with the strongest
   storms.

   ..Darrow.. 09/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33329997 34459622 33149621 32009997 33329997 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN