Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2104

   Mesoscale Discussion 2104
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0850 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

   Areas affected...Central and South Central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615...

   Valid 200150Z - 200345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms within WW 0615 are expected to
   persist for the next couple of hours, and maintain a threat for
   damaging straight-line winds and hail.

   DISCUSSION...A loose cluster of supercell thunderstorms continues
   south-southeastward across the western and central portions of WW
   0615. The 00Z DDC RAOB downstream of the current convection showed
   an unstable and uncapped airmass, approximately 40 kts of deep layer
   shear, and fairly substantial 0-3km SRH exceeding 200 m^2 / s^2.
   Though the nocturnal boundary layer has (and will continue) to
   stabilize, warm air advection influenced by a modest nocturnal
   low-level jet will continue to support elevated convection over the
   next couple of hours. This low-level jet is also influencing the
   low-level curvature of the hodograph, which will further support
   continued storm intensity through the maintenance of low-level and
   mid-level mesocyclones. 

   Given the decrease in buoyancy with eastward extent, the expectation
   is that storm severity will also decrease with eastward extent. The
   primary threat will be for hail up to 1.75 inches, and 60 MPH winds.

   ..Halbert.. 09/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38870060 38970036 38989970 38969925 38809892 38359866
               38039854 37819849 37559869 37379909 37379957 37410010
               37470034 37620060 38160072 38530071 38710070 38870060 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN