Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2092

   Mesoscale Discussion 2092
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0315 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...northeast New Mexico...far
   western OK/TX Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 172015Z - 172215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and severe winds will be possible with initial
   supercells. With time a cluster or two may move into the southern
   High Plains with an attendant wind threat. A watch is possible this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus development has become more prominent from near
   Colorado Springs southward to the Raton Mesa this afternoon--with
   recent thunderstorm initiation noted in NLDN data. At least some
   MLCIN remains within the Plains to the east, but this should erode
   within the next couple of hours and certainly by late afternoon.
   Moderate mid-level flow around the High Plains upper trough has
   promoted 30-40 kts of effective shear across the terrain. Low 50s F
   dewpoints at this elevation supports near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms
   should at least initially be supercells capable of large hail and
   severe gusts. Given the easterly winds and presence of a weak
   boundary, a brief tornado is also possible. Over time, some upscale
   growth can be expected with the well-mixed boundary layer and weak
   low-level shear leading to propagating outflow. A cluster or two
   could persist into the evening and move into parts of the southern
   High Plains.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 09/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36820460 37480488 38250516 38850516 39060487 38760423
               38400385 37880314 37340276 36810268 36240294 36180372
               36820460 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN