Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2073

   Mesoscale Discussion 2073
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0121 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

   Areas affected...far northeast Texas Panhandle...far eastern
   Oklahoma Panhandle...far northwest Oklahoma...and portions of far
   south-central and southwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141821Z - 142045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify this
   afternoon. These storms will pose a risk for large hail and gusty
   winds. The need for a watch is currently uncertain, but will be
   monitored this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Convergence is increasing across the area along a
   slowly moving surface cold front. Large-scale ascent is also
   expected to increase this afternoon in response to a 70-knot
   upper-level jet streak embedded within the larger scale flow pattern
   around a high amplitude mid-upper-level trough.

   Thunderstorms should continue to develop/intensify this afternoon
   across portions of northeast Texas Panhandle northeast into portions
   of southwest/south-central Kansas. Here, afternoon temperatures have
   warmed into the upper 70Fs and low 80Fs, and should continue to warm
   with additional diurnal heating. At the same time, surface dewpoints
   are in the low-to-mid 60Fs, with only little vertical mixing of
   low-level moisture expected given the increasing cloud cover.
   Mid-level lapse rates are on the order of 7 C/km, which when
   combined with the temperature/dewpoint temperature combination at
   the surface, yield most unstable CAPE values ranging from 1000-2500
   J/kg depending on the exact combination.

   Currently, effective-layer shear is rather poor across the area, but
   may increase slightly as the aforementioned jet streak approaches
   the area. Despite this increase, effective-layer shear will struggle
   to sustain supercell structures with any storm that develops,
   instead favoring multi-cell clusters exhibiting transient
   supercell-like characteristics.

   Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest
   storms. One negative for any sustained potential will be the
   neutral-to-rising midlevel heights
   as the trough continues to lift northward. As such, storm-scale
   processes will likely drive any sustained spatial severe potential.
   Thus, the need for a watch is currently uncertain and will be highly
   dependent upon the details of character of any storm interactions
   and the number of storms that may ultimately develop. This will be
   monitored through the afternoon.

   ..Marsh/Guyer.. 09/14/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35800078 36500082 37300005 37449949 37409895 36879884
               36019937 35470007 35800078 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN