Mesoscale Discussion 2071
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Areas affected...parts of western New Mexico and southeastern
Arizona
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 131900Z - 132130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms may produce large hail and severe gusts
this afternoon across portions of western New Mexico and
southeastern Arizona. A watch may be needed.
DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed across portions of
western New Mexico, situated near an upper low and associated jet
streak, which is providing sufficient deep-layer shear for
supercells, per mesoanalysis and regional VWPs. Hodographs are
generally long and straight, suggesting that large hail may be a
threat with any sustained supercells, and a TBSS has already been
noted on KABX radar. Though relatively weak mid-level lapse rates,
particularly over the southern part of the region, may limit hail
productivity.
Evolution of the severe threat this afternoon and evening is
uncertain. With time, storms may cluster, and these clusters may
have risk of severe gusts. However, high boundary layer relative
humidity may result in weaker cold pools and slower clustering.
Additionally, clouds and stable air are lingering across portions of
eastern New Mexico, which may provide an eastward bound to the
severe risk. A watch may be needed as storms develop eastward later
this afternoon, and trends will be monitored.
..Supinie/Guyer.. 09/13/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...
LAT...LON 31720823 31640944 31720986 32091006 32880929 33260898
33730861 34730784 35480764 35830769 36140763 36260730
36040639 35560573 35160535 34460528 33170545 32540568
32070606 31750677 31720728 31720823
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Category: Watches, Warnings, Advisories, & Hazards
Tags: Center, Discussion, Mesoscale, Prediction, Storm