Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2027

   Mesoscale Discussion 2027
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern SD into southern/central MN and far
   northwest WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022016Z - 022215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon into
   the early evening. Isolated hail and localized damaging wind are
   expected to be the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have recently developed near a surface boundary
   east of Aberdeen, with gradually increasing cumulus noted farther
   southwest into east-central SD, and also farther east into
   central/northeast MN. Clear skies have allowed for diurnal
   heating/destabilization across parts of eastern SD, where MLCAPE has
   increased to near/above 1500 J/kg. Parts of MN are still recovering
   from earlier convection and cloudiness, but short-term guidance
   suggests at least a narrow corridor of moderate destabilization may
   evolve through late afternoon from parts of central/northeast MN
   into far northwest WI. Additional storm development is expected by
   late afternoon/early evening, with coverage remaining somewhat
   uncertain with southwestward extent across SD. 

   Mid/upper-level flow is generally not very strong across the region,
   but modest northwesterly flow atop low-level south-southwesterlies
   is supporting effective shear of 20-30 kt. A few stronger multicells
   and perhaps a transient supercell or two will be possible. Midlevel
   lapse rates are not particularly steep (generally near 7 C/km), but
   cooling aloft associated with an approaching mid/upper-level
   shortwave trough across ND could support isolated hail potential
   with the strongest storms. Locally damaging winds will also be
   possible, especially where stronger heating and steepening of
   low-level lapse rates occurs through the remainder of the afternoon.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 09/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   43439924 43949969 44659916 45659670 46319532 47159348
               46889240 46559196 45969178 45269292 44429424 43599625
               43479845 43439924 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN