Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2021

   Mesoscale Discussion 2021
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Colorado and northeast New
   Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 292002Z - 292130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
   continue developing this afternoon over the higher-terrains and
   adjacent plains. Eventually a few stronger clusters or supercells
   may evolve with a risk for damaging gusts and some hail. A WW is
   possible but uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Weak upslope flow and strong diurnal heating of a moist
   air mass is support scattered thunderstorm development over portions
   of the central Rockies this afternoon. Weak ascent from a glancing
   shortwave trough and continued upslope should allow for additional
   development over the next several hours. While low and mid-level
   lapse rates aren't particularly steep, heating and upper 50s to mid
   60s F dewpoints are supporting moderate MLCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) over
   the southern high Plains.

   As convection intensifies this afternoon a 35-45 kt of bulk-shear
   are in place to support storm organization. A few organized clusters
   or supercell structures could evolve with an initial risk of
   damaging gusts and some hail. CAM guidance has trended more
   aggressive this afternoon, showing further storm development/upscale
   growth into this evening, which could support one or more linear
   clusters with a locally greater damaging wind threat.

   While confidence in the convective evolution is low owing to
   somewhat nebulous forcing for ascent, storm coverage is expected to
   increase over the coming hours. A broadly favorable severe
   environment with continued destabilization also suggests the severe
   threat is likely increasing. Portions of southeastern CO, southwest
   KS and northeast NM will be upgraded to a level 2/5 Slight Risk at
   20z. A WW is also being considered.

   ..Lyons/Mosier.. 08/29/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37380536 38750434 39050297 38270218 37070234 35300310
               34350379 34250434 34540511 36330555 37380536 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN