Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2003

   Mesoscale Discussion 2003
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1152 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

   Areas affected...Far eastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and
   the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221652Z - 221845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters developing across northern Wisconsin
   may pose a localized severe hail/wind risk through the afternoon as
   they spread east into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Watch
   issuance is currently not anticipated, but trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing along a surface cold front
   across far eastern MN and northwest WI have shown signs of gradual
   intensification per MRMS and GOES IR imagery. While stronger
   mid/upper-level flow will likely remain displaced to the
   north/northwest, recent VWP observations from KDLH sampled 0-6 km
   BWD values on the order of 25-30 knots. This may promote some degree
   of organization of embedded cells within the larger cluster through
   early afternoon and cold pool consolidation/organization by mid/late
   afternoon. Muted daytime heating of a seasonably moist air mass in
   place downstream ahead of the front should promote a modest increase
   in MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg by mid-afternoon, which may also
   bolster convective intensity to some degree. 

   In general, the expectation is that this activity will pose a threat
   for isolated hail and perhaps isolated to scattered damaging/severe
   gusts. There is some potential that a more widespread damaging wind
   threat could emerge if convective intensity/organization is more
   substantial than currently anticipated as hinted by a few morning
   CAM solutions. This scenario could warrant a targeted watch issuance
   later this afternoon, but based on current observations (ongoing
   cloud cover, delayed surface heating, etc...), this potential seems
   low.

   ..Moore/Gleason.. 08/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46928988 47008938 46948915 46738878 46368856 45978854
               45638862 45478902 45369271 45519319 45709343 46039340
               46339293 46509196 46669115 46928988 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN