At a glance — Hurricane Erin (AL05)
- Advisory time: 8:00 PM EDT (0000 UTC) • Aug 18
- Status: Category 4 hurricane
- Max winds: 130 mph
- Min pressure: 947 mb
- Location: 24.1°N 71.5°W (about 695 mi SW of Bermuda; 805 mi SSE of Cape Hatteras, NC)
- Movement: NW (310°) at 10 mph
- Wind field: Hurricane-force to 80 mi; TS-force to 230 mi (370 km)
- Watches/Warnings: TS Warning — Turks & Caicos; Southeast Bahamas • TS Watch — Central Bahamas; Beaufort Inlet to Duck, NC (incl. Pamlico Sound) • Storm Surge Watch — Cape Lookout to Duck, NC
- Next advisories: Complete 11:00 PM EDT
- Source: NHC Public Advisory (TCPAT5 • 8:00 PM EDT Intermediate Advisory #30A)
What’s happening now
Erin is a large, dangerous Category 4 hurricane passing east of the southeastern and central Bahamas. Reconnaissance aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds near 130 mph and a central pressure of 947 mb. A northward turn is expected Tuesday. On the forecast track, Erin should move between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast during the middle of the week.
The wind field has expanded, with hurricane-force winds extending up to 80 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds out to 230 miles. Life‑threatening surf and rip currents will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, much of the U.S. East Coast, and Atlantic Canada over the next several days.
Key takeaways
- Erin is a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 130 mph.
- Center near 24.1°N, 71.5°W; moving NW at 10 mph; turn north expected Tuesday.
- TS Warning: Turks & Caicos; SE Bahamas. TS Watch: Central Bahamas; Beaufort Inlet to Duck, NC (incl. Pamlico Sound). Storm Surge Watch: Cape Lookout to Duck, NC.
- Core expected to pass east of the Bahamas, then between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast mid‑week.
- Life‑threatening surf and rip currents for the Bahamas, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Atlantic Canada for several days.
Always follow guidance from your local meteorological service and the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This post summarizes official information for convenience and situational awareness.
Current status (as of 8:00 PM EDT • 0000 UTC)
- Status: Category 4 hurricane (AL052025)
- Location: 24.1°N 71.5°W (about 695 miles SW of Bermuda; 805 miles SSE of Cape Hatteras, NC)
- Movement: NW (310°) at 10 mph
- Maximum sustained winds: 130 mph (210 km/h)
- Minimum central pressure: 947 mb (27.96 in)
- Wind field: Hurricane-force to 80 miles; tropical-storm-force to 230 miles (370 km).
Watches and warnings
🟠 Tropical Storm Warning
- Turks and Caicos Islands
- Southeast Bahamas
🟡 Tropical Storm Watch
- Central Bahamas
- Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina (including Pamlico Sound)
🔵 Storm Surge Watch
- Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina
Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Bermuda should also monitor Erin. Always heed official instructions from your local meteorological service and the NHC.
Forecast overview
- Track: Turning north Tuesday, then moving between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast mid‑week; accelerating northeast later in the week.
- Intensity: Little additional strengthening is likely; Erin should remain a dangerous major hurricane through mid‑week while the wind field continues to expand.
- Confidence: Guidance favors the core staying offshore of the U.S. East Coast; Bermuda may see strong winds, heavy rain, and high surf by mid‑ to late‑week.
Expected impacts
- Rainfall: Outer bands will produce localized heavy rainfall. Additional 2–4 inches with localized 6 inches across Turks & Caicos, the southeast Bahamas, and the easternmost central Bahamas through Tuesday; localized heavy rain over Hispaniola this evening.
- Wind: Tropical-storm conditions expected in the Turks & Caicos and SE Bahamas through this evening; possible in the central Bahamas tonight through Tuesday. Tropical-storm conditions possible in portions of the NC Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday.
- Surf/Rip Currents: Swells affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Atlantic Canada for several days will cause life‑threatening surf and rip currents—heed local beach flags and advisories.
Maps and official resources
- NHC Public Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml
- NHC Forecast Advisory (track, wind radii): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml
- NHC Forecast Discussion (key messages): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
- NHC 3–5 day cone & wind speed probabilities: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/3-daynl
- Rip current risk graphic (U.S.): https://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
Graphics
Latest NHC 5‑Day Cone of Uncertainty (auto‑updating):
Cumulative wind history (areas affected so far by sustained TS/Hurricane‑force winds):
Storm‑specific “Basic 7” graphics for Erin:
- Cone and track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?cone
- Wind speed probabilities: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?wwpot
- Arrival time (earliest reasonable): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?earliest
- Arrival time (most likely): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?arrival
- Wind history: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?swath
- Rainfall potential (experimental): https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=qpf
- Key messages (text): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
Next updates
- Next complete NHC advisory: 11:00 PM EDT.
- I’ll update this post as new advisories arrive and key messages change.
—
Source: National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories and discussions. U.S. Government publications are in the public domain. Always consult your local meteorological service for location-specific warnings and preparedness guidance.