Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1972

   Mesoscale Discussion 1972
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0548 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

   Areas affected...South-central/southeast ND into northeast SD

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 597...

   Valid 171048Z - 171215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 597
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some threat for localized strong to severe gusts may
   continue through dawn.

   DISCUSSION...A bowing MCS has evolved across south-central ND into
   north-central SD. While this MCS appears relatively well organized,
   recent observed wind gusts have generally been subsevere,
   potentially due to relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions
   and the lack of a stronger cold pool. The well defined MCV
   associated with this system, favorable downstream buoyancy (with
   MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), and a modest southeasterly low-level jet
   should help to maintain this MCS as it moves northeastward through
   dawn. Strong to locally severe gusts and perhaps isolated hail may
   still accompany this MCS, especially where preceding storms get
   absorbed into the primary convective line. 

   The need for eventual downstream watch issuance is uncertain, given
   the relative lack of severe gusts thus far, but trends will continue
   to be monitored for an uptick in severe-wind potential.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 08/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46690087 46800119 47080087 47140023 47219933 46959825
               46429759 45969747 44829775 44429819 44209957 45899985
               46310004 46690087 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN