At a glance — Hurricane Erin (AL05)
- Advisory time: 2:00 PM AST (1800 UTC) • Aug 16
- Status: Category 5 hurricane
- Max winds: 160 mph
- Min pressure: 915 mb
- Location: 19.8°N 63.3°W (about 110 mi N of Anguilla; 205 mi ENE of San Juan, PR)
- Movement: W (280°) at 16 mph
- Wind field: Hurricane-force to 30 mi; TS-force to 140 mi (mainly N of center)
- Watches: Tropical Storm Watch — St. Martin & St. Barthelemy; Sint Maarten
- Next advisories: Complete 5:00 PM AST; Intermediate 8:00 PM AST
- Source: NHC Public Advisory (TCPAT5 • 2:00 PM AST Intermediate #21A)
What’s happening now
Erin is a compact, very intense Category 5 hurricane passing just north of the northern Leeward Islands. Aircraft reconnaissance indicates maximum sustained winds near 160 mph and a central pressure around 915 mb. The small core with a tiny eye is producing an intense inner eyewall, while outer rainbands are sweeping across the northern Leewards with squalls, heavy rain, and brief gusts to tropical-storm force. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for St. Martin & St. Barthelemy and Sint Maarten.
The hurricane is moving west near 16 mph and is expected to turn west-northwest tonight, then gradually north early next week. On this track, the core should pass just north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Sunday. Even with the center offshore, hazardous surf and life‑threatening rip currents are spreading outward and will reach the Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the U.S. East Coast early next week. Intensity may fluctuate through the weekend as eyewall cycles occur; gradual weakening is more likely early next week as shear increases, but Erin remains a major hurricane in the near term.
Key takeaways
- Erin is now a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph.
- Center is located near 19.8°N, 63.3°W, moving W at 16 mph.
- Tropical Storm Watches: St. Martin & St. Barthelemy, Sint Maarten.
- Core expected to pass just north of the northern Leewards, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through the weekend; turn toward the north early next week.
- Life-threatening surf and rip currents will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the U.S. East Coast early next week.
Always follow guidance from your local meteorological service and the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This post summarizes official information for convenience and situational awareness.
Current status (as of 2:00 PM AST • 1800 UTC)
- Status: Category 5 hurricane (AL052025)
- Location: 19.8°N 63.3°W (about 110 miles N of Anguilla; 205 miles ENE of San Juan, PR)
- Movement: W (280°) at 16 mph
- Maximum sustained winds: 160 mph (higher gusts)
- Minimum central pressure: 915 mb
- Wind field: Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles; tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (mainly north of center).
Watches and warnings
- Tropical Storm Watch
- St. Martin & St. Barthelemy
- Sint Maarten
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Turks and Caicos, and the SE Bahamas should monitor Erin closely.
Forecast overview
- Track: WNW through the weekend, passing just north of the northern Leewards, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. A gradual slowdown and a turn toward the north are expected early next week.
- Intensity: Some additional strengthening possible this afternoon; fluctuations in intensity expected through the weekend. Gradual weakening likely early next week as wind shear increases, but Erin remains a major hurricane in the near term.
- Confidence: Guidance is increasingly consistent that the core remains east of the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast; Bermuda has a risk of strong winds, heavy rain, and high surf by midweek.
Expected impacts
- Rainfall: 2–4 inches with isolated 6 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday. Flash/urban flooding and landslides or mudslides are possible in terrain.
- Wind: Tropical-storm conditions possible later today in watch areas. Gusts to tropical-storm force possible in outer rainbands over the northern Leewards today and the VI/PR tonight into Sunday.
- Surf/Rip Currents: Swells will affect the northern Leewards, VI, PR, Hispaniola, and Turks & Caicos through the weekend; spreading to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the U.S. East Coast early next week. Life-threatening surf and rip currents likely—heed local beach flags and advisories.
Maps and official resources
- NHC Public Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml
- NHC Forecast Advisory (track, wind radii): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml
- NHC Forecast Discussion (key messages): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
- NHC 3–5 day cone & wind speed probabilities: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/3-daynl
- Rip current risk graphic (U.S.): https://www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
Graphics
Storm‑specific “Basic 7” graphics for Erin:
- Cone and track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?cone
- Wind speed probabilities: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?wwpot
- Arrival time (earliest reasonable): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?earliest
- Arrival time (most likely): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?arrival
- Wind history: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?swath
- Rainfall potential (experimental): https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=qpf
- Key messages (text): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
Update — 2:00 PM AST Intermediate Advisory (21A)
- NHC Intermediate Advisory at 2:00 PM AST reports Erin at 19.8N 63.3W, moving W at 16 mph, maximum sustained winds 160 mph, minimum pressure 915 mb. Watches: Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin & St. Barthelemy; Sint Maarten. Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/161731.shtml
Update — Official Category 5 (11:20 AM AST)
- NHC Tropical Cyclone Update at 11:20 AM AST confirms Erin is now Category 5 with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph and minimum pressure 917 mb. Location 19.7N 62.8W; moving west at 17 mph. Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT5+shtml/161520.shtml
Reconnaissance (Hurricane Hunters)
- Overview and latest aircraft data: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php
Latest Vortex Data Message (VDM)
- Mission: AF308 0905A ERIN
- Fix time: 16/15:05Z
- Center: 19.60°N, 62.72°W
- Min central pressure: 920 mb (700 mb extrapolated)
- Max flight‑level wind: 149 kt at 312° / 3 nm at 15:04Z
- Max surface wind (SFMR): 148 kt (noted in VDM)
- Eye: closed; eye temperature 23°C; RMW ~3–5 nm; very compact core
- Motion estimate: 312° at 3 nm between fixes
Source: NHC Vortex Data Message (URNT12 KNHC 161520)
Raw VDM excerpt
URNT12 KNHC 161520
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052025
A. 16/15:05:40Z
B. 19.60 deg N 062.72 deg W
C. 700 mb 2405 m
D. 920 mb
E. 115 deg 50 kt
F. CLOSED
G. CO5-24
H. 143 kt
I. 312 deg 3 nm 15:04:00Z
J. 059 deg 149 kt
K. 312 deg 3 nm 15:04:00Z
L. 148 kt
M. 134 deg 5 nm 15:07:30Z
N. 207 deg 141 kt
O. 134 deg 4 nm 15:07:00Z
P. 11 C / 3041 m
Q. 23 C / 3002 m
R. NA / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF308 0905A ERIN OB 19
MAX FL WIND 149 KT 312 / 3 NM 15:04:00Z
Next updates
- Next intermediate NHC advisory: 8:00 PM AST.
- Next complete NHC advisory: 5:00 PM AST.
- I’ll update this post as new advisories arrive and key messages change.
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Source: National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories and discussions. U.S. Government publications are in the public domain. Always consult your local meteorological service for location-specific warnings and preparedness guidance.