Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1954

   Mesoscale Discussion 1954
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

   Areas affected...Central High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152049Z - 152245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe winds and large hail will be possible with
   storms that can move off the terrain into the High Plains. A watch
   is not expected in the short term.

   DISCUSSION...Mid-level ascent is evident on visible/water vapor
   imagery this afternoon from the eastern Great Basin into the central
   High Plains. Modest moisture (upper 40s/low 50s F) in eastern
   Wyoming has allowed convection and widely scattered thunderstorms to
   develop. Inhibition immediately to the east of this activity is
   slowly weakening. Some this activity will likely move off the
   terrain. Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail would be
   possible. The observed 18Z UNR/LBF soundings do show stronger
   inhibition into the Plains. While there is a signal in guidance for
   convection to cluster and eventually intensify, this is not likely
   to occur until early evening when MLCIN erodes farther east. At that
   point, the low-level jet will focus in the region and mid-level
   ascent will be marginally stronger. That said, a watch is not
   anticipated in the short term.

   ..Wendt/Mosier.. 08/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40930472 42240527 43610539 44230503 44200432 42610305
               41490258 40550269 40080307 39970351 40090422 40930472 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN