Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1944

   Mesoscale Discussion 1944
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0237 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

   Areas affected...southwest to central MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141937Z - 142130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat might develop before early
   evening within a few cells shifting slowly east from southwest
   Minnesota. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Along the backside of a remnant MCV moving from
   south-central to southeast MN, lower-level warm theta-e advection
   has persisted across southwest MN. A belt of 40-45 kt
   southwesterlies has been consistently sampled by the FSD VWP from
   1-3 km and this is expected to gradually shift east into this
   evening. RAP-based forecast soundings and observed cloud bases
   suggest initial cells are probably rooted around 750 mb along the
   differential heating zone west of the MCV cloud shield. Nearly all
   guidance has lacked robust convective signal this afternoon, except
   for the 12Z HRW-NSSL. It has a low-probability scenario of a
   supercell developing within this regime and tracking south-southeast
   along the differential heating corridor. The more probable scenario
   is for sporadic attempts at transient updraft rotation, capable of
   producing marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts. These
   threats should remain within a confined corridor at any one time,
   but gradually translate east into early evening.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 08/14/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   45379593 45769549 45779492 45519447 45129408 44699388
               44189377 43739422 43759513 44189589 44759625 45379593 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN