Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1934

   Mesoscale Discussion 1934
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0957 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

   Areas affected...Far northern Missouri into southeast Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 120257Z - 120500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A pair of supercells that has developed over southeast
   Iowa may pose a brief tornado and isolated hail risk over the next
   couple of hours. Additional supercell development is possible, but
   the overall severe threat is expected to remain limited spatially
   and temporally.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a pair of supercells has developed
   across southeast IA in the vicinity of a decaying MCV emanating out
   of northern MO. This activity is on the northern fringe of an axis
   of warm low-level conditions/weakly inhibited MLCAPE and is on the
   periphery of a swath of 30-35 knot mid-level winds associated with
   the MCV. Based on recent mesoanalysis estimates, this spatial window
   of favorable MLCAPE and adequate deep-layer wind shear appears
   relatively small with weaker CAPE/greater inhibition with northward
   extent and weaker shear with southward extent. However, these cells
   may linger within this window for the next couple of hours. While
   some low-level veering is noted via surface observations and recent
   upper-air analyses/forecast soundings, weak wind magnitudes are
   limiting overall SRH (only around 50-100 m2/s2 effective SRH). This
   casts uncertainty on the overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, the
   velocity signatures associated with the supercells suggest organized
   mesocyclones are present and some brief tornado and hail threat may
   manifest with these storms prior to stronger nocturnal low-level
   stabilization later this evening. An additional supercell or two may
   develop within a weak warm advection regime across far northern
   MO/southeast IA, but overall coverage of the severe threat is
   expected to be limited in the absence of stronger forcing for ascent
   and increasing inhibition with time.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 08/12/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41429072 41049083 40719118 40499162 40349207 40329254
               40289289 40299324 40379339 40589347 40799342 41019317
               41269275 41489233 41689160 41749118 41659083 41429072 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN