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| Mesoscale Discussion 1930 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1930
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025
Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 112138Z - 112345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across eastern North Dakota and
far northwest Minnesota will see some intensification through the
evening hours. Severe hail and damaging gusts are possible, but the
overall threat should remain too limited to warrant watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across the northern
Plains both along a surface cold front traversing the Red River
Valley of the North as well as across north-central ND within the
post-frontal regime. Recent surface observations shows a narrow
plume of higher theta-e air extending ahead of the front towards the
Lake of the Woods area. This air mass is supporting MLCAPE values of
around 1000-1500 J/kg, which is regionally the best convective air
mass. Although 30-35 knot mid-level flow is overspreading the
region, the combination of strong frontal forcing and weak
off-boundary deep-layer shear components will favor upscale growth
across far northwest MN over the next couple of hours. Large hail
will be possible within initial cells, but an uptick in the
potential for damaging/severe winds is expected through late
evening. Marginal mid-level lapse rates and a fairy narrow warm
sector should modulate the overall coverage/intensity of convection.
Further west, cold temperatures aloft in proximity to an upper
trough combined with ascent within the left exit region of a
mid-level jet is supporting deep convection over north-central ND.
Deep-layer shear appears to be adequate for some storm organization,
so a few strong/severe storms, including transient/weak supercells,
will be possible within the post-frontal regime. Cooler conditions
will limit buoyancy values compared to areas further east, which
should also act to hindering overall storm intensity, though a few
instances of severe hail are possible.
..Moore/Hart.. 08/11/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 46289930 46780006 47400064 47850105 48210124 48520119
48810090 48960049 49020021 49089987 49029597 49009552
49079528 49349515 49409502 49399481 49199464 49039454
48859426 48759395 48719372 48649333 48519320 48339320
48009334 46679433 46149515 45809585 45699616 45629660
45679750 45859850 46269913 46289930
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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