Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1919

   Mesoscale Discussion 1919
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

   Areas affected...southeast NE and northeast KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582...

   Valid 100539Z - 100715Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts will remain possible over the next few
   hours across southeast NE into northeast KS.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar trends show some weakening of the bowing
   cluster across KS as outflow has raced southeast, as evident in KDDC
   and KUEX 88-D data. An embedded supercell on the northern side of
   this cluster has recently intensified, presenting very strong
   velocity signatures over the past 30 minutes. The area downstream
   across far southeast NE and far northeast KS (along the state
   border) may see the greatest risk for more intense gusts (65-80 mph)
   in the short term. 

   A very moist and strongly unstable downstream airmass is noted in
   surface observations and latest mesoanalysis data. Modest vertical
   shear and a 30 kt south/southwesterly low-level jet should support
   continued storm organization and maintain a severe risk across the
   broader region over the next several hours as convection approaches
   the Missouri River.

   ..Leitman.. 08/10/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   40419857 40759771 40869631 40499576 39889568 39409607
               39119798 39039891 39269916 39699914 40199896 40299884
               40419857 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN