Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1913

   Mesoscale Discussion 1913
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Western Kansas...and far
   southwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 091853Z - 092130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will be possible
   across portions of the area this afternoon into the overnight. Large
   hail and damaging winds are the most likely hazards, but tornadoes
   cannot be ruled out. A watch is likely later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Southeasterly low-level flow has maintained dewpoints
   from the mid-50Fs to low 60Fs this afternoon across southeast
   Colorado, in the presence of strong diurnal mixing. The result is
   most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 2500 J/kg across portions of
   the area. At the same time, modest westerly 500mb flow a top this
   southeasterly low-level flow has maintained deep-layer shear values
   between 30 and 45 knots. This has set the stage for one or more
   rounds of thunderstorms this afternoon into the overnight.

   Expectations are for thunderstorms to initiate within the next
   couple of hours in the vicinity of the Palmer Divide. There are a
   couple of different areas where initiation might occur first --
   within the Denver cyclone or along the Palmer Divide itself where
   continued upslope flow is sufficient to overcome convective
   inhibition. Additional areas of convective initiation could occur
   across portions of the Nebraska panhandle where convergence is
   increasing along a residual low-level boundary.

   The overall wind field will be supportive of discrete convective
   modes, including supercells, capable of all hazards, although high
   LCLs may limit the tornado potential somewhat. 

   Additional thunderstorms will be possible later this evening into
   the overnight across the higher terrain west of the initial
   convection as moist outflow boundaries move west into the mountains
   and large-scale ascent increases in response to an approaching
   short-wave trough. The main threat with these storms would be large
   hail and damaging winds.

   Given the possibility for multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms
   anticipated, one or more watches will likely be needed later today.

   ..Marsh/Hart.. 08/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   38960506 39710477 40880364 41480236 41210180 40690124
               40250073 39950055 38790042 37700066 37210280 37620395
               38260476 38960506 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN