Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1911

   Mesoscale Discussion 1911
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0729 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

   Areas affected...portions of IA into southeast MN and far
   west-central WI

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 580...

   Valid 091229Z - 091430Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 580
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms producing damaging wind gusts will
   persist across portions of western into north-central Iowa this
   morning.

   DISCUSSION...Severe gusts continue with the cluster of storms
   ongoing across west-central IA this morning. Radar trends have shown
   some downward trend in velocity strength as well as a somewhat more
   disorganized presentation in reflectivity. Nevertheless, measured
   severe gusts and wind damage reports continue as convection develops
   northeast along/just ahead of a surface cold front. 

   The downstream airmass remains strongly unstable, and convection
   will persist along the length of the surface front from west-central
   WI into southeast MN and northern/western IA. The core of the
   low-level jet remains centered just east of ongoing storms, and
   stronger vertical shear tends to lag behind the surface boundary.
   Convection along the front in MN/WI has largely been unproductive
   overnight. While strong to severe gusts remain possible in the short
   term across IA, it is unclear if severe potential and a downstream
   watch will be needed into MN/WI.

   ..Leitman.. 08/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   42209589 43369401 44109232 44219166 44139112 43929084
               43649094 42089297 41699356 41289449 41359542 41519595
               41799610 42209589 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN