Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1897

   Mesoscale Discussion 1897
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0254 PM CDT Thu Aug 07 2025

   Areas affected...parts of western and central North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071954Z - 072200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Uncertainty lingers concerning potential thunderstorm
   coverage and sustenance into and through 5-7 PM CDT.  However, any
   sustained thunderstorm development may include rapidly intensifying
   supercells accompanied by a risk for large hail, locally damaging
   wind gusts  and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Along and southeast of a weak baroclinic zone, near the
   leading edge of air impacted by outflow from now dissipated
   convective development, boundary-layer air with seasonably high
   moisture content is becoming characterized by moderate to strong
   potential instability.  This is being supported by steep
   lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates associated a broad plume of warm
   and capping elevated mixed-layer air overspreading much of the Great
   Plains.  

   Based on latest model output and objective analysis, the northern
   periphery of the stronger capping may now be north of the surface
   front, roughly near/northwest of the Dickinson through Garrison and
   Minot vicinities.  However, large-scale scale ascent associated with
   lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, a subtle mid-level short wave
   perturbation, and localized area of enhanced low-level convergence
   might be sufficient to overcome mid-level inhibition and support the
   initiation of at least isolated thunderstorm development late this
   afternoon.  If this occurs, there appears potential for rapid
   intensification, and the evolution of a large supercell, in the
   presence of moderate to strong deep-layer shear beneath 30-40 kt
   southwesterly flow around 500 mb. 

   The environment appears conducive to the potential for large hail,
   locally damaging surface gusts, and, despite modest low-level
   hodographs, a risk for a couple of tornadoes.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 08/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47540379 48680138 48179986 47190026 46830139 47080353
               47540379 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN