Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1893

   Mesoscale Discussion 1893
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0800 PM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025

   Areas affected...central and eastern South Dakota into northern
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 574...

   Valid 060100Z - 060300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 574 continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat of a brief tornado remains over the South Dakota
   portion of the watch. However, a transition to damaging wind threat
   is anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A large complex of thunderstorms within the warm
   advection zone over southeast ND continues to build southwestward
   into northeast SD, with new cells developing along the heated
   surface trough. Storms mode has been mixed, with clustering and
   merging outflows.

   The 00Z ABR sounding was moist, but relatively cool in the
   low-levels. As such, low-level shear from here northeastward has
   proved ineffective for tornadoes thus far. However, a substantial
   southerly low-level jet persists this evening, and instability
   remains substantial. New cells developing within the surface trough
   draped across SD could produce a brief tornado before storm mode
   becomes unfavorable. Most model solutions depict upscale growth into
   an MCS, propagating southeastward through tonight. Damaging winds
   should be the main threat in such a scenario.

   ..Jewell.. 08/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   42270194 43300137 44070108 44500095 46029948 46099911
               46079811 45759749 44729730 43169764 42299842 42109938
               41920053 41940133 42060179 42270194 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN