|
Mesoscale Discussion 1885 | |
Next MD > | |
|
|
Mesoscale Discussion 1885 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025 Areas affected...Central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 042035Z - 042230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to develop through the afternoon within the higher terrain. These will spread north/northeast and produce severe winds and isolated large hail. A watch is possible for parts of central/eastern Montana. DISCUSSION...Beneath a plume of cirrus overspreading the northern Rockies, thunderstorms are beginning to initiate and deepen within southwest into central Montana this afternoon. Additional cumulus development is also noted along the weak surface trough. Greater surface heating and moisture farther east has allowed MLCIN to erode away from the terrain. It may take another 1-2 hours for MLCIN near the terrain to erode. Over the remainder of the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop and move north and east. Moisture will have some tendency to mix out where surface heating occurs, but should support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear is currently weak within the region per VAD and 18Z TFX sounding data. However, this should improve as the compact mid-level jet moves through the northern Rockies this evening. Some supercell structures along with linear segments will be possible. The main hazard will be severe wind gusts given the large temperature-dewpoint spreads. Isolated large hail may also occur, especially with supercells. ..Wendt/Smith.. 08/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 47360770 46600759 45740843 45630890 45750988 46091102 46501165 46981193 47521224 48111269 48551284 48841265 49051247 49070934 48400881 48020837 47360770 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN |
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home |