Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1885











Mesoscale Discussion 1885
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1885
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0335 PM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025

   Areas affected...Central Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 042035Z - 042230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to develop through the
   afternoon within the higher terrain. These will spread
   north/northeast and produce severe winds and isolated large hail. A
   watch is possible for parts of central/eastern Montana.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath a plume of cirrus overspreading the northern
   Rockies, thunderstorms are beginning to initiate and deepen within
   southwest into central Montana this afternoon. Additional cumulus
   development is also noted along the weak surface trough. Greater
   surface heating and moisture farther east has allowed MLCIN to erode
   away from the terrain. It may take another 1-2 hours for MLCIN near
   the terrain to erode. Over the remainder of the afternoon, scattered
   thunderstorms will likely develop and move north and east. Moisture
   will have some tendency to mix out where surface heating occurs, but
   should support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear is currently weak within
   the region per VAD and 18Z TFX sounding data. However, this should
   improve as the compact mid-level jet moves through the northern
   Rockies this evening. Some supercell structures along with linear
   segments will be possible. The main hazard will be severe wind gusts
   given the large temperature-dewpoint spreads. Isolated large hail
   may also occur, especially with supercells.

   ..Wendt/Smith.. 08/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   47360770 46600759 45740843 45630890 45750988 46091102
               46501165 46981193 47521224 48111269 48551284 48841265
               49051247 49070934 48400881 48020837 47360770 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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