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Mesoscale Discussion 1869 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1869 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 020054Z - 020230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A localized risk of severe wind and hail will continue for another hour or so across southeastern Colorado. DISCUSSION...Two fairly persistent/organized clusters of severe storms continue advancing eastward across the southeastern CO Plains this evening -- both generally focused along intersecting outflow boundaries. Rich boundary-layer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints) and steep deep-layer lapse rates are yielding a corridor of weak-moderate surface-based buoyancy, which should continue to support the maintenance of these storm clusters for another hour or so -- especially given around 30 kt of deep-layer shear (per nearby VWP data). While these storms will continue to pose a risk of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail in the near-term, the overall risk still appears too spatially/temporally limited for a watch (see DDC 00Z sounding). ..Weinman/Gleason.. 08/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37600334 38480357 38830351 39290315 39380258 39120210 38360218 37590224 37130260 37120295 37600334 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN |
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