Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1857

   Mesoscale Discussion 1857
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0552 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of east-central and southeast Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 312252Z - 010115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storm risk will increase over the next few hours.
   The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail
   and severe wind gusts. A watch is not currently expected, though
   trends are being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms are evolving along the higher
   terrain west of the I-25 corridor in central/southern CO. Cool
   temperatures aloft and an elongated hodograph (around 35 kt of 0-6
   km shear per PUX VWP) will support isolated large hail with this
   activity. Regional/upstream VWP data indicates modest strengthening
   of west-southwesterly midlevel winds overspreading the area, which
   will allow storms to gradually advance eastward into the CO Plains
   tonight. Moist/east-southeasterly upslope flow beneath the
   strengthening midlevel westerlies will yield an elongated/straight
   hodograph amid sufficient surface-based buoyancy -- supportive of
   loosely organized storm clusters. 

   Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts will be possible with
   any clusters that evolve, though generally weak large-scale forcing
   for ascent casts uncertainty on the coverage of storms. A watch is
   not currently expected, though convective trends will be monitored.

   ..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37400513 38620523 39320506 39930467 39970378 39610334
               39060316 37980310 37420338 37110396 37120466 37400513 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN