Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1843

   Mesoscale Discussion 1843
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast NE...Western IA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 559...560...

   Valid 300455Z - 300700Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 559, 560
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for strong to severe gusts remains across
   southeast NE and western IA.

   DISCUSSION...The merger of two somewhat separate convective lines
   resulting in complex convective evolution across eastern NE and
   western IA over the past hour or so. The result is singular
   convective line that extends from near SLB in Buena Vista County IA
   southwestward to about 40 miles south-southeast of HSI in Nuckolls
   County NE. The overall system remains fairly strong, with cold cloud
   tops (i.e. -70 to -75 deg C) and high reflectivity above 30 kft.
   Even so, the outflow has surged out ahead of the line and the number
   of strong to severe gusts has been gradually decreasing. Given that
   strong buoyancy remains in place, the intensity of the convection
   should continue to modulate, occasionally resulting in strong to
   severe gusts. Mergers with any leading cells could also act to
   enhance the strong/severe gust potential.

   ..Mosier.. 07/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   42309606 42619486 42249404 40809431 40529600 40569724
               40969766 41659725 42309606 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN