Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1826

   Mesoscale Discussion 1826
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0549 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025

   Areas affected...Central and Eastern South Dakota...Far Northern
   Nebraska...Western Minnesota...Far Northwest Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552...

   Valid 282249Z - 290045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 552
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue over the next few hours from
   much of central and eastern South Dakota southward into far northern
   Nebraska. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, wind
   damage and isolated large hail. Severe weather watch issuance is
   expected early this evening to the east of the ongoing watch, as the
   severe threat moves eastward toward southwestern Minnesota and
   northwest Iowa.

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-res imagery from Sioux Falls, South
   Dakota shows three intense discrete supercells ongoing in
   south-central South Dakota. The storms are located to the west of a
   north-to-south moisture axis where surface dewpoints are in the
   lower 80s F. The low-level moisture is contributing to strong
   instability, with the RAP showing a pocket of MLCAPE in the 5000 to
   6000 J/kg range. The storms are being supported by large-scale
   ascent associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the
   central Dakotas. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer
   shear is analyzed by the RAP over much of the northern Plains. The
   Sioux Falls WSR-88D VWP has a substantial amount of low-level
   directional shear, with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This will
   support continued supercell development. Tornadoes, wind damage and
   isolated large hail will be likely with the more intense cells. Over
   the next several hours, convective coverage is expected to increase,
   as a gradual consolidation of convection occurs. In response, a
   fast-moving line of storms is expected to form by early to mid
   evening in eastern South Dakota, which will likely increase the
   wind-damage threat with bowing line segments along its leading edge.
   Wind gusts in the 80 to 100 mph will be possible.

   ..Broyles.. 07/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   42549939 42650001 42860025 43190036 43750018 44559981
               45359920 45969797 46099711 45989603 45499544 44589526
               43999539 43309559 42659600 42359705 42549939 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN