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Mesoscale Discussion 1820 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1820 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Areas affected...eastern MT...western ND...and far northwest SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281002Z - 281200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong gusts are possible through mid-morning with initial elevated storms across the northern Great Plains. Some potential exists for greater than anticipated coverage which could warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have been ongoing for the past several hours, but one cell has recently intensified near GDV. GSL-MPAS runs appear to be favorably handling this activity spatially, albeit slower than observed. The general expectation are for these storms to persist through daybreak into mid-morning, largely eastward in ND along the buoyancy gradient. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies, as sampled by the GGW VWP, will be sufficient for updraft rotation and a primary threat of large hail. Weak convection has also recently formed near the MT/ND/SD border area. If this activity intensifies as well, a broader cluster might emerge which could increase the severe wind threat later this morning. ..Grams/Hart.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 47440506 47960221 47850115 47140051 46260091 45790163 45630266 45750410 45960502 46180629 46360694 46730682 47440506 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN |
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