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Mesoscale Discussion 1813 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1813 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...Northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272154Z - 280030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop over the next 2 to 3 hours across parts of northern Minnesota. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed once the exact timing of cell initiation becomes clear. DISCUSSION...At the surface, a 1008 mb low is currently analyzed just to the north of the U.S.-Canadian border in far western Ontario. A front is located to the southwest of the low, with a very moist airmass in place over much of northern Minnesota ahead of the front. Surface heating early this afternoon has contributed strong instability across most of this airmass, with the RAP showing MLCAPE generally in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. As the front moves southeastward across northern Minnesota late this afternoon and early this evening, low-level convergence is forecast to increase near or ahead of the boundary. This will likely result in convective initiation. Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in coverage early this evening, with a severe threat developing. The instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs, will support an isolated large hail and wind-damage threat. As convective coverage increases, the severe threat is expected to gradually shift eastward toward the Arrowhead of Minnesota. ..Broyles.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 48289522 48559482 48679423 48609332 48389219 48199143 47939097 47649096 47419106 46969190 46869312 47099469 47459526 47959535 48289522 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN |
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