Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1806

   Mesoscale Discussion 1806
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0209 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

   Areas affected...western to north-central ND and far northwest SD

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546...547...

   Valid 270709Z - 270845Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546, 547
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Sporadic severe gusts and hail will remain possible
   through about dawn, mainly across parts of western to north-central
   North Dakota.

   DISCUSSION...A messy/complex convective setup is ongoing with a
   myriad of line segments, clusters, and a pair of splitting cells. A
   broken line has spread into far western ND ahead of an MCV over far
   northeast MT, while a small cluster is just ahead of the line in
   southwest ND/far northwest SD. Both have produced marginal severe
   gusts in the past hour and may continue to do so for the next few
   hours. Downstream surface observations suggest the plume of upper
   60s surface dew points has become confined in a pocket across
   southwest ND arcing into north-central ND, in the wake of earlier
   convective outflows. The right-mover of a pair of splitting cells
   anchored long the north end of the buoyancy plume across
   north-central ND has had mid-level rotation and may produce isolated
   severe hail as well.

   ..Grams.. 07/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   49009967 48619960 48190008 47590068 46960109 46160125
               45600167 45540276 45610337 45970345 46570338 47560356
               48180391 48470371 48690229 49009967 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN