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| Mesoscale Discussion 1802 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1802 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0942 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545... Valid 270242Z - 270415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545 continues. SUMMARY...A localized corridor of significant (70-85 mph) winds may be emerging across northeast Montana for the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...KGGW velocity imagery shows a localized surge in a maturing MCS that is the result of a recent squall-line/supercell merger. This merger is likely the initiating mechanism for a somewhat prolonged (1-2 hour) surge of severe - to potentially significant - wind gusts downstream across northeast MT. Recent observations from the 00 UTC GGW sounding and the KGGW VWP show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer wind shear for MCS maintenance, including very strong 0-3 km BWD values on the order of 40 knots. Consequently, given this environment and the recent convective trends, the potential for wind gusts as high as 70-85 mph appears to be increasing. ..Moore.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GGW... LAT...LON 47450749 47650755 47960763 48120761 48690577 48630534 48490507 48160488 47950490 47780497 47650506 47600533 47450749 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH |
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