Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1788

   Mesoscale Discussion 1788
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1124 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

   Areas affected...Central into northeast ND

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543...

   Valid 260424Z - 260600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 543
   continues.

   SUMMARY...At least an isolated threat for severe wind and hail may
   continue overnight.

   DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm cluster that earlier weakened
   across southwest ND has recently intensified west of Bismarck. A
   strengthening low-level jet observed on recent VWPs from KBIS may be
   aiding the recent intensification of both the eastward-moving storm
   cluster, and an area of midlevel convection that has recently
   deepened north of Bismarck. Ongoing storms remain relatively
   disorganized with a tendency for outflow to undercut convection, but
   steep midlevel lapse rates and large MUCAPE (2500 J/kg or greater)
   will continue to support some potential for hail with the strongest
   cores, along with strong to severe gust potential, especially with
   the cluster approaching Bismarck. 

   Farther north, an earlier intense storm cluster has mostly
   dissipated across northwest ND, but some recent intensification of
   new updrafts has been noted east of Minot, just behind the remnant
   eastward-moving outflow. Very strong buoyancy (MUCAPE of 3000-4000
   J/kg) remains in place into northeast ND. Given the favorable MUCAPE
   and midlevel lapse rates, an uptick in storm coverage and intensity
   is possible into the overnight hours. With CINH increasing and
   deep-layer shear expected to remain rather modest, potential for
   longer-lived cells and/or organized upscale growth remains
   uncertain. The potential for any downstream watch issuance will
   depend on short-term trends regarding storm coverage and
   organization.

   ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46950205 47240179 47620092 48930031 49149892 49119802
               48709755 47819838 46589956 46080087 45970174 46950205 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN