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Mesoscale Discussion 1769 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1769 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Areas affected...central to eastern IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 240546Z - 240715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to localized severe gust threat may accompany a portion of a QLCS, mainly centered on the US-30/I-80 corridors during the next few hours. Expected localized coverage suggests Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance remains unlikely. DISCUSSION...Some surge within a broader QLCS has occurred within the apex of outflow intersections northwest of the DSM Metro Area, with measured severe gusts at personal weather stations in Carroll County earlier this hour. A swath of 50-65 kt inbound velocities around 2500-3000 ft AGL have recently progressed into Greene County. Given ample buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and a 40-45 kt rear-inflow jet per OAX VWP data, it is plausible that a confined swath of strong to embedded severe gusts may persist over the next 2-3 hours. This is likely to be centered on the US-30/I-80 corridors, where the portion of the line remains more progressive atop preceding outflow from downshear convection. ..Grams/Gleason.. 07/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 42259315 42589230 42719178 42689149 42409130 42119149 41669170 41519291 41499374 41629411 42009402 42079379 42259315 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH |
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