Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1760

   Mesoscale Discussion 1760
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0929 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

   Areas affected...central MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231429Z - 231630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm potential may increase
   through the morning. Strong, locally damaging wind gusts will be the
   main hazard with storms into the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A surface front draped across north-central MN into
   central SD will continue to develop south/southeast this morning.
   Thunderstorms ahead of this boundary across MN have shown some
   indication of intensification as the downstream airmass warms into
   the upper 70s to low 80s late this morning. Convective inhibition is
   rapidly diminishing, and this may allow for gradual strengthening as
   the boundary pushes southeast. Furthermore, severe storms in eastern
   SD may eventually organize and develop eastward into parts of MN.
   Vertical shear is weaker across central MN compared to some points
   north and west. Nevertheless, the 12z RAOB from MPX showed around
   1500 J/kg MLCAPE with some drier air between 850-700 mb and modestly
   steep midlevel lapse rates. This may support strong to severe gusts.

   Timing and convective evolution through the remainder of the morning
   into early afternoon is uncertain, but a severe thunderstorm watch
   may eventually be needed.

   ..Leitman/Smith.. 07/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45349617 46519394 46639309 46359218 45559201 44569206
               44259280 44109424 44189532 44439624 44749647 45009638
               45349617 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN