Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1752











Mesoscale Discussion 1752
MD 1752 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1752
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Alabama into southwest Georgia and parts of
   the Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221745Z - 221945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging downburst winds will be possible across parts of
   eastern Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle
   through late afternoon as thunderstorms increase in coverage and
   intensity.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing within a corridor of higher
   low-level theta-e across eastern AL into southwest GA and the FL
   Panhandle have shown signs of gradual intensification over the past
   30 minutes with echo tops beginning to exceed 40 kft in a few deeper
   convective cores. Despite the very moist/buoyant environment (MLCAPE
   between 2000-3000 J/kg), regional VWPs continue to sample very poor
   deep-layer wind shear, suggesting that convective mode will largely
   remain a collection of short-lived single-cell storms and cold-pool
   driven convective clusters (evidence of which is already noted
   across southwest GA where cold pool consolidation is beginning to
   take place). As such, the overall severe threat will remain very
   limited. However, a few damaging downbursts appear probable given
   very deep buoyancy profiles, PWAT values exceeding 2 inches, and
   steepening lapse rates within the lowest 2 km - all of which are
   favorable for accelerating water-loaded downdrafts. Downburst winds
   between 40-55 mph will be most common, but a few isolated gusts
   approaching 60 are possible. This potential should be maximized
   through peak heating when buoyancy and low-level lapse rates will
   both be maximized.

   ..Moore/Smith.. 07/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   33498588 33698578 33858559 33858537 33648514 33418504
               32888493 32158454 31728418 31438380 31158334 30668301
               30388311 30108352 30008403 29938446 29918492 30018547
               30308590 30638610 31108621 31638618 33498588 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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