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Mesoscale Discussion 1752 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1752 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Alabama into southwest Georgia and parts of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221745Z - 221945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Damaging downburst winds will be possible across parts of eastern Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through late afternoon as thunderstorms increase in coverage and intensity. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing within a corridor of higher low-level theta-e across eastern AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle have shown signs of gradual intensification over the past 30 minutes with echo tops beginning to exceed 40 kft in a few deeper convective cores. Despite the very moist/buoyant environment (MLCAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg), regional VWPs continue to sample very poor deep-layer wind shear, suggesting that convective mode will largely remain a collection of short-lived single-cell storms and cold-pool driven convective clusters (evidence of which is already noted across southwest GA where cold pool consolidation is beginning to take place). As such, the overall severe threat will remain very limited. However, a few damaging downbursts appear probable given very deep buoyancy profiles, PWAT values exceeding 2 inches, and steepening lapse rates within the lowest 2 km - all of which are favorable for accelerating water-loaded downdrafts. Downburst winds between 40-55 mph will be most common, but a few isolated gusts approaching 60 are possible. This potential should be maximized through peak heating when buoyancy and low-level lapse rates will both be maximized. ..Moore/Smith.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 33498588 33698578 33858559 33858537 33648514 33418504 32888493 32158454 31728418 31438380 31158334 30668301 30388311 30108352 30008403 29938446 29918492 30018547 30308590 30638610 31108621 31638618 33498588 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH |
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