Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1750

   Mesoscale Discussion 1750
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0910 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

   Areas affected...West-central into central South Dakota and far
   south-central North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 220210Z - 220415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Though uncertain, some increase in storm
   intensity/coverage is possible this evening. Convective trends will
   be monitored for a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms northeast of the Black Hills
   has recently shown some modest intensification. Another storm has
   also developed east of the Black Hills. This is likely in response
   to a strengthening low-level jet. MLCAPE is still near or above 4000
   J/kg ahead of this activity and effective shear is sufficient for
   organized storms. However, MLCIN is also starting to slowly increase
   as well. With little upper-level support, it is not clear whether
   storms will maintain intensity or how much coverage will increase
   this evening. A watch is possible, but it will depend on convective
   trends in intensity/upscale growth.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45869934 45109959 44640083 44370195 44940311 45520239
               46030020 45869934 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN