Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1742

   Mesoscale Discussion 1742
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0736 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southern IL/IN into northern KY

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533...

   Valid 210036Z - 210200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado remain possible
   this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A compact bowing segment has developed and is moving
   into southwest IN as of 0030 UTC. This bowing segment is moving
   quickly east-southeastward along a surface boundary and instability
   gradient, and will pose a threat of at least localized wind damage
   for as long as it persists this evening.  

   Other semi-discrete convection has developed both ahead of this
   bowing cluster, and in its wake across south-central IL. With MLCAPE
   of 1500-2500 J/kg and effective shear of 25-35 kt, organized
   convection will remain possible through the evening, including
   potential for occasional supercell structures. Warm temperatures
   aloft and weak midlevel lapse rates may tend to limit the magnitude
   of the severe threat to some extent, but locally damaging wind and
   perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent
   discrete cells. Any additional upscale-growing clusters could pose a
   threat for more concentrated wind damage, though in the absence of
   stronger low-level flow, this potential is uncertain.

   ..Dean.. 07/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39638955 39298730 38998516 38918419 38498364 38188446
               37938546 38108677 38278806 38598936 39178943 39638955 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH