Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1733

   Mesoscale Discussion 1733
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1139 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

   Areas affected...Southern Iowa...extreme northeast
   Missouri...west-central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 200439Z - 200645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A small cluster of thunderstorms will pose a risk for
   isolated large hail and strong wind gusts. Should these storms show
   signs of becoming better organized, then watch issuance would be
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms has recently
   intensified over south-central Iowa in the vicinity of an east-west
   frontal boundary. Latest objective analysis shows this area within a
   zone of low-level warm advection, and also within the right entrance
   region of an upper-level jet maximum. Strong instability (MUCAPE in
   excess of 2500 J/kg) and around 40 kts of westerly shear will
   provide a favorable environment for some continued severe hail and
   wind threat, with some non-zero tornado potential in the vicinity of
   the boundary.  The primary uncertainty is the degree of organization
   that would result in more than an isolated severe threat. Latest
   hi-res guidance remains varied regarding near-term forecasts for
   these storms, although the potential does exist for increased
   organization over the next few hours. Were this to occur, then watch
   issuance would be possible.

   Convective trends will be monitored closely.

   ..Bunting/Hart.. 07/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40989426 41229306 41189216 40949158 40719122 40539107
               40309107 40259185 40319296 40449388 40789428 40989426 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN