MD 1706 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA…FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING…AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1706
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025
Areas affected...southeast Montana...far northeast Wyoming...and
northwest South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 180601Z - 180730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong to isolated severe elevated supercells are
possible early this morning.
DISCUSSION...Earlier storm activity across Montana has mostly
weakened below severe limits. However, as the nocturnal low-level
jet strengthens across the northern Plains, additional storms will
develop. Early radar echos across far southeast Montana and far
southwest North Dakota are likely the beginning of the overnight
elevated storm threat. Sampling of the low-level jet is somewhat
meager, but at least some evidence of it strengthening can be seen
on the KBIS VWP. Weak to moderate instability southwest of a frontal
zone will support robust updraft development. Strong effective shear
(50 to 60 knots) will support the potential for supercells with some
hail threat (given moderately steep mid-level lapse rates from the
00Z KUNR VWP). Overall a lack of greater instability along the
frontal zone (where storms are anticipated) should limit the overall
threat. A few strong to isolated severe supercells with some large
hail are possible, but the magnitude and areal extent should remain
too low to warrant a watch.
..Bentley/Gleason.. 07/18/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...
LAT...LON 45720540 45930464 45980405 45930296 45760157 45750149
45100065 44490111 44390281 44570437 44770504 45070537
45720540
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN