Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1642

   Mesoscale Discussion 1642
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0127 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of MN into eastern SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111827Z - 112030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Storms are gradually increasing in coverage early this
   afternoon across west-central MN, in the vicinity of a cold front.
   Additional building cumulus and initial storm development has
   recently been noted along/ahead of the front across north-central
   MN. Additional storm development will be possible along/ahead of the
   front this afternoon as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves
   across southern SK/MB and ND and approaches the region from the
   west. 

   The strongest mid/upper-level flow associated with the approaching
   shortwave will lag behind the front, resulting in relatively weak
   deep-layer shear along/ahead of the front. This will tend to limit
   storm organization to some extent, but moderate to locally strong
   buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates will support a threat
   of isolated hail and damaging gusts with the strongest storms this
   afternoon.

   ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45389362 44229458 43629557 43259706 43349846 43649861
               43839831 44459720 45259629 45789599 46269561 47619498
               48879501 49259502 49359479 48629224 48319156 46699259
               45389362 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN