MD 1626 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NE INTO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST IA…NORTHWEST MO…AND NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1626
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025
Areas affected...Parts of central/southeast NE into adjacent
southwest IA...northwest MO...and northeast KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 100857Z - 101030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may continue through the early
morning.
DISCUSSION...A long-lived QLCS has shown a gradual weakening trend
from western IA into southeast NE early this morning. However, a
wake low has developed behind the line across southeast NE, as
evidenced by an earlier 1-hour pressure drop of 7.8 mb and gusts up
to 56 kt at KLNK. This area of strong to locally severe wake low
winds may spread across parts of northeast KS and far northwest
MO/southwest IA with time. Locally damaging gusts also remain
possible near the primary gust front of the QLCS, especially where
more vigorous convection persists across southwest IA.
Farther west, a strong low-level jet (as noted on recent VWPs from
KLNX) and related warm-advection regime are supporting strong to
potentially severe elevated storms across central NE. An earlier
cell within this regime became rather intense, with MESH hail
estimates of greater than 2 inches in diameter. While this cell has
since weakened, strong elevated instability and sufficient effective
shear may continue to support a threat of isolated hail and
localized strong/damaging gusts within this regime through the early
morning.
..Dean/Guyer.. 07/10/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 42339995 42719947 42299868 41489788 40909748 41019555
41439480 41449405 41349376 40989386 40399398 40059412
39769476 39849733 40059822 40329879 40629925 41249978
41599993 42339995
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN