Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1603

   Mesoscale Discussion 1603
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

   Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 081634Z - 081830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along the Blue Ridge Mountains is
   expected in the next 1-2 hours. The threat for strong to severe
   winds will increase through the afternoon hours as storms spread
   east across the Mid-Atlantic region. Watch issuance is likely to
   address this concern.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows building cumulus
   within the central to southern Appalachians as temperatures continue
   to warm into the upper 80s and low 90s within a very moist air mass
   (dewpoints and PWAT values across the region are near or above the
   90th percentile for mid-July). As temperatures continue to warm into
   the low to mid 90s over the next few hours, lingering inhibition
   will erode and support increasing probability for thunderstorm
   development within the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge Mountains
   and/or along a weak surface pressure trough in the lee of the
   terrain. Additional heating will also support SBCAPE values
   increasing to around 2000-3000 J/kg as well as steepening
   near-surface lapse rates. This thermodynamic environment will
   promote strong water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging/severe
   downburst winds. Modest flow aloft will generally limit deep-layer
   shear magnitudes and the potential for well-organized convection,
   but a few long-lived clusters or convective bands seem plausible,
   especially considering the weak capping that should promote
   scattered thunderstorm development. The wind threat should peak by
   late afternoon when thermodynamic profiles will be optimized and as
   convection reaches maturity along the I-95 corridor.

   ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   38627916 40017720 41327521 41487474 41457429 41107383
               40727373 40287383 37077842 37057864 37127886 37887936
               38137945 38367942 38627916 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH