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| Mesoscale Discussion 1584 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1584 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0603 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...northwest KS...and southwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489...490... Valid 062303Z - 070030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489, 490 continues. SUMMARY...A focused/favorable corridor for large hail and severe wind gusts is evident over the central High Plains for the next few hours -- within Severe Thunderstorm Watches 489/490. DISCUSSION...An intense, nearly stationary supercell has evolved out of a cluster of storms over far northeastern CO. Farther west, a separate cluster of storms is showing signs of upscale growth. To the southeast of this activity, a gradually stalling outflow boundary is arcing northwestward from northwest KS into northeastern CO. This outflow boundary may provide a focused mesoscale corridor for the maintenance of the supercell (and additional nearby convection) with southeastward extent into this evening. Along this corridor, around 40 kt of effective shear (locally boosted/enhanced along the boundary) and moderate surface-based instability will favor large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts with any established supercells/clusters. Some upscale growth may also occur with time, as the western cluster may have a tendency of merging with the downstream storms/supercells -- posing an increasing risk of severe-wind gusts into this evening. ..Weinman.. 07/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39890262 40070379 40310432 40510443 41030408 41510398 41740355 41700294 41480238 40730187 39900146 39630170 39610203 39710228 39890262 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN |
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