Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1575

   Mesoscale Discussion 1575
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0751 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

   Areas affected...east North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061251Z - 061515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal increase in tornado potential may occur this
   morning as Tropical Storm Chantal continues to move inland. The
   overall tornado potential should remain low enough to preclude the
   need for a TC-related Tornado Watch. However, trends will be
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...A marginal increase in tornado potential may occur this
   morning as Tropical Storm Chantal continues to move inland. This
   marginal increase would coincide with modest diurnal heating
   increasing and several feeder bands streaming inland on the eastern
   semicircle of Chantal. The onshore environment containing these
   feeder bands has little instability at present and the low-level
   storm-relative helicity is on the lower side of land-falling
   tropical cyclones. That said, the low-level storm-relative helicity
   still remains sufficient for low-level rotation with stronger
   thunderstorm updrafts. Present thinking is that the limited
   instability and modest low-level helicity should preclude any longer
   duration/larger area tornado threat and thus a TC-related tornado
   watch is not currently anticipated. However, trends will continue to
   be evaluated for increasing buoyancy and/or low-level helicity.

   ..Marsh/Bunting.. 07/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   33857826 34727876 35637820 35897780 35987689 35627583
               34757563 34517617 34197674 33827750 33857826 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH