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| Mesoscale Discussion 1570 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1570 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...Northern High Plains/Black Hills region Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487... Valid 052156Z - 060000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487 continues. SUMMARY...New severe thunderstorm watch will likely be warranted into western South Dakota in the next hour or so. Severe wind/hail can be expected with organized convection spreading into this region. DISCUSSION...Notable high-level diffluent flow is evident across the northern High Plains early this evening ahead of a progressive short-wave trough that is advancing across the northern Rockies. A considerable amount of deep convection is developing in response to this progressive feature, with a maturing MCS beginning to surge across southeast MT. This activity should begin to turn southeast over the next few hours, along/north of a surface front that is draped from the Nebraska Panhandle, along the west side of the Black Hills, into the northern Big Horn Mountains near Buffalo. Greatest buoyancy extends along the moist side of this wind shift which favors a severe MCS propagating toward the Black Hills later this evening. New severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued to reflect this scenario. ..Darrow.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 45920606 46260467 44740193 43430199 43150363 44630621 45920606 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN |
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