Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1546

   Mesoscale Discussion 1546
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0907 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

   Areas affected...New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 031407Z - 031600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms
   appear increasingly likely across parts of New England into this
   afternoon. One or two Severe Thunderstorm Watches will probably be
   issued before midday as storms intensify eastward.

   DISCUSSION...Two areas of ongoing convection, one along the ME/QC
   border and the other near the NY/VT border vicinity, should
   intensify as they spread east across parts of New England into
   midday. 12Z CAR sounding sampled a moderate combination of MLCAPE
   and effective bulk shear with convective temperature in the upper
   70s. 14Z surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low
   80s with abundant insolation ahead of both convective areas. While
   the 12Z HRRR appears to be poorly handling the near-term scenario,
   it does suggest another round of strong to potentially severe
   convection may emanate eastward from ongoing storms across the Saint
   Lawrence Valley near northern NY. A mix of isolated severe hail with
   a predominant threat of scattered strong to localized severe gusts
   producing damaging winds seems probable.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 07/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

   LAT...LON   46086650 44986752 43766937 42547080 42357142 42407258
               42577335 43197332 43997237 44717200 45007240 45337216
               46427037 46976937 47356811 47126737 46086650 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN