Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1543

   Mesoscale Discussion 1543
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0550 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the Upper Midwest

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022250Z - 030015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and locally
   strong gusts will be possible during the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are initiating along a weak
   low-level moisture gradient and wind shift extending southeastward
   from southeast MN into far southwest WI -- aided by a midlevel speed
   max approaching the area (evident in water-vapor imagery). An
   elongated/straight hodograph (around 30 kt of effective shear) and
   sufficient surface-based instability along this corridor may promote
   brief/transient convective organization over the next few hours.
   Given an expected cellular mode amid the elongated/straight
   hodograph and modestly steep lapse rates, isolated instances of
   marginally severe hail will be possible (along with locally strong
   gusts). The overall threat is expected to remain too localized and
   transient for a watch.

   ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43439360 43879412 44359423 44839385 44879299 44649231
               43539014 42878994 42359041 42469139 43439360 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN